As of December 6, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 7766.67 yuan/ton, down nearly 8630 yuan or 52.64% from the price of 16400 yuan/ton on January 1.
In 2022, the domestic propylene glycol market experienced “three rises and three falls”, and each rise was followed by a more violent fall. The following is a detailed analysis of the

propylene glycol market trend in 2022 from three stages:

Phase I (1.1-5.10)
After the New Year’s Day in 2022, propylene glycol plants in some parts of China will resume operation, the on-site supply of propylene glycol will increase, and the downstream demand will be insufficient. The propylene glycol market will be under pressure, with a decline of 4.67% in January. After the Spring Festival in February, the propylene glycol stock in the yard was low, and the downstream reserved goods for the festival were supported by both supply and demand. On February 17, propylene glycol rose to the highest point in the year, with the price around 17566 yuan/ton.
In the face of high prices, the downstream wait-and-see mood increased, the pace of goods preparation slowed down, and propylene glycol inventory was under pressure. Since February 18, propylene glycol started to fall at a high level. In March and April, the downstream demand of propylene glycol continued to be weak, the domestic transportation was limited in many places, the supply and demand circulation was slow, and the center of gravity of propylene glycol continued to decline. Until early May, the propylene glycol market had fallen for nearly 80 consecutive days. On May 10, the propylene glycol market price was 11116.67 yuan/ton, a 32.22% drop compared with the beginning of the year.
Phase II (5.11-8.8)
Since the middle and late of May, the propylene glycol market has welcomed favorable support in terms of exports. With the increase of export orders, the overall supply pressure of propylene glycol in the field has eased, and the offer of propylene glycol factory has started to rise steadily. In June, the export advantage continued to support the center of gravity of propylene glycol to move up. On June 19, the market price of propylene glycol was near 14133 yuan/ton, up 25.44% compared with May 11.
In late June, the propylene glycol export was calm, the domestic demand was generally supported, and the propylene glycol supply side was gradually under pressure. In addition, the raw material propylene oxide market fell, and the cost support was loose, so the propylene glycol market entered the downward channel again. Under the constant negative pressure, propylene glycol fell all the way down to the first ten days of August. On August 8, the market price of propylene glycol fell to about 7366 yuan/ton, less than half of the market price at the beginning of the year, with a drop of 55.08% compared with the beginning of the year.
The third stage (8.9-12.6)
In the middle and late August, the propylene glycol market experienced a recovery from the trough. Export orders increased, the supply of propylene glycol was tight, and the cost increased to support the upward movement of the propylene glycol market. On September 18, the propylene glycol market price was 10333 yuan/ton.
In the middle and late September, with the weakening of raw materials and the loosening of cost support, and after the propylene glycol price fell below 10000 yuan, the turnover of new orders became weak, and the propylene glycol market price was again weak and fell. After the National Day holiday, the “silver ten” did not appear, and the demand was insufficient. Under the pressure of the accumulated warehouse shipment at the supply side, the contradiction between supply and demand intensified, and the propylene glycol continued to hit the bottom. As of December 6, the propylene glycol market price was 7766.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 52.64% in 2022.
Factors influencing propylene glycol market in 2022:
Exports: In 2022, the propylene glycol market experienced two sharp increases in early May and early August respectively. The main driving force for the increase was the positive support from exports.
In the first quarter of 2022, the export volume of domestic propylene glycol to Russia will decrease due to the international influence, which will also affect the overall export direction of propylene glycol in the first quarter.
In May, the export supply of propylene glycol recovered. The increase of export orders concentrated on the increase in May. In addition, the supply of Dow devices in the United States was reduced due to force majeure. The export was supported by a good result. The increase of orders drove the price of propylene glycol up. According to customs data, the export volume in May continued to hit a new high of 16600 tons, up 14.33% month on month. The average export price was 2002.18 dollars/ton, of which 1779.4 tons was the largest export volume to Türkiye. From January to May 2022, the cumulative export volume will be 76000 tons, up 37.90% year on year, accounting for 37.8% of the consumption.
With the delivery of export orders, the follow-up of new orders with high prices is limited. In addition, the domestic market demand is weak in the off-season. The overall price of propylene glycol fell back in the middle and late June, waiting for the next cycle of export orders. By the middle of August, the propylene glycol factory had delivered export orders again, and the factory goods were tight and reluctant to sell. The propylene glycol rebounded from the bottom, ushering in a wave of rising market again.
Demand: In 2022, the propylene glycol market will continue to decline significantly, which is mainly affected by demand. The trading and investment atmosphere in the downstream UPR market is general, and the overall terminal demand is slowly boosted, mainly for raw material procurement. After the centralized delivery of export orders, the propylene glycol factory began to deliver goods at the margin after the pressure of its multi storages, and the market price gradually fell deeply.
Future market forecast
In the short term, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the domestic propylene glycol production capacity is on the high side as a whole. Towards the end of the year, the situation of supply exceeding demand in the propylene glycol market is hard to change, and it is expected that the market conditions are mostly weak.
In the long run, after 2023, propylene glycol market is expected to have staged stock in the early Spring Festival, and the support of demand will bring a wave of rising market. After the festival, it is expected that the downstream will need time to digest raw materials, and most of the market will enter the consolidation and operation. Therefore, it is expected that in the first quarter of 2023, domestic propylene glycol market will be stabilized after recovering from the downturn, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the information on supply and demand.