Last week, octanol and its main raw material plasticizer products narrow shock adjustment, as of last Friday the market mainstream offer of 12,650 yuan / ton, octanol shock at the same time affected the plasticizer market DOP, DOTP, DINP rise by the momentum.

As can be seen from the chart below, the price correlation between DOP and DOTP and octanol is high, mainly because of the high product unit consumption of octanol among the above plasticizers, and the price correlation with phthalic anhydride and PTA is relatively low, and there is also a certain lag.

One of the main reasons for the recent shocks, octanol supply is expected to tighten, as of May 12, the national octanol industry start rate of 94.20%, at a higher level, including Shandong Jianlan device since the end of March long-term parking, the recent northeast and east China have additional maintenance plans, in June will affect the supply of octanol for a period of time. Second, the price of octanol basic reference to a factory in Shandong auction prices, octanol market transaction atmosphere is good, the factory has bullish expectations, the auction price increased by 200 yuan / ton, driving the mainstream prices higher. In addition, the current butyl alcohol factory more than the implementation of the contract, in the case of the day listed price is lower than the monthly settlement price, the downstream and intermediaries to take the enthusiasm will also improve.
It is expected that the plasticizer market will continue to maintain the oscillating trend in the second half of May, with a range of 200-400 yuan / ton.
First, the supply side: at present, the overall operating load of plasticizer devices is not high, most of them maintain a medium load, part of the device phase shutdown or maintenance, but the overall supply of plasticizer is still relatively abundant, enterprise product inventory is not low.

Second, the demand side: according to the National Bureau of Statistics statistics, 2022 April total retail sales of consumer goods fell 11.1% year-on-year, in March fell 3.5% year-on-year, March and April were negative, mainly by the national epidemic. May 17, Shanghai, the city’s 16 districts have achieved zero social surface, the epidemic ushered in the inflection point, social production and life order gradually restored in the medium and long term In the medium to long term, the plasticizer industry chain may have a certain positive boost.

Third, the news: affected by the regional situation, the probability of international oil prices remain near 100-110 U.S. dollars / barrel, there is an important bottom support role for chemical prices.

Fourth, the raw material side: octanol and phthalic anhydride prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall, long-term squeeze plasticizer plant profit margins, the price of plasticizer support role is also more obvious.

Comprehensive view, due to the lack of strong market buying support, since mid-March, plasticizer industry chain has always been in the short-cycle changes, whether up or down, the duration of time is relatively short, after the gradual unsealing of Shanghai, East China social liquidity will be greatly enhanced, in addition to the supply and demand, profit level under the dual support, it is estimated that the short-term market is easy to rise but difficult to fall, the price increase can last for the time The length of the upward price movement depends on whether the demand that was delayed in the previous period can be finally released.